The race for the Lagos State Government House in 2027 is gradually becoming one of the biggest political battles to watch ahead of Nigeria’s general elections.
With the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) firmly backing Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presenting former Labour Party governorship candidate Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour as its challenger, Lagos is already shaping up for a contest between an established political structure and an opposition movement determined to break the APC’s long hold on the state.
The deputy governor has received the backing of the powerful Lagos APC leadership, including the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The GAC endorsed him as its consensus candidate in April, giving him an early start and helping the APC avoid the type of internal division that can weaken a governing party before an election.
For the APC, the argument is expected to centre heavily on continuity. Hamzat has been part of the Lagos political establishment for years, having served as a commissioner before becoming deputy governor in 2019. His experience within the administration and his relationship with the party's political structure give him an organisational advantage that opposition candidates will have to work hard to overcome.
But Lagos politics has shown that a strong political structure does not automatically guarantee an easy election.
Rhodes-Vivour Returns With a Different Strategy
Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour remains the most prominent opposition challenger to the APC in Lagos.
His importance in the 2027 contest is largely linked to his performance in 2023, when he contested on the Labour Party platform and finished second behind Governor Sanwo-Olu. Rhodes-Vivour secured 312,329 votes, compared with Sanwo-Olu's 762,134, while the PDP candidate, Olajide Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, received 62,449 votes.
That result demonstrated that the APC could be seriously challenged in Lagos when opposition votes and anti-establishment sentiment were effectively mobilised.
However, Rhodes-Vivour enters the 2027 race under different circumstances. He has moved from the Labour Party to the ADC, while Peter Obi, whose 2023 presidential campaign helped generate the wider Obidient wave that boosted Labour's performance in Lagos, is now pursuing his political ambitions outside the ADC.
Rhodes-Vivour, however, insists that he is no longer depending on the Obi factor.
Speaking in July, he argued that his political structure has expanded since 2023, with greater emphasis on grassroots organisation and community mobilisation.
He also maintained that the ADC has built a broad opposition coalition capable of challenging the APC.
“We came into the coalition because we realised that if we have multiple oppositions it will be difficult to take out this present government,” Rhodes-Vivour said, expressing confidence that the coalition would produce a stronger challenge in 2027.
The Peter Obi Question
One of the biggest questions surrounding Rhodes-Vivour's campaign is whether he can reproduce or surpass his 2023 performance without the nationwide political momentum generated by Peter Obi.
Rhodes-Vivour says he can.
He argues that the Lagos contest has its own dynamics and that his political strength is now increasingly rooted in direct engagement with communities rather than dependence on a national political personality.
He has also accused the APC of relying on intimidation during previous elections, an allegation the ruling party has disputed. His campaign says its opposition coalition is being designed not only to mobilise voters but also to protect votes at polling units and resist electoral intimidation.
This could become one of the defining features of the 2027 contest.
The Opposition’s Biggest Problem: Unity
While Rhodes-Vivour presents himself as the face of a broad opposition coalition, the larger opposition space in Lagos remains complicated.
The ADC is not the only platform seeking to challenge the APC. Other opposition parties and political figures are also positioning themselves for the 2027 election.
That creates a familiar problem: vote splitting.
The 2023 election showed how difficult it is for the opposition to defeat the APC without a strong consolidation of votes. Although Rhodes-Vivour finished second, the combined votes of the major opposition candidates were substantial.
The question now is whether opposition parties can put their differences aside and rally behind a single strong candidate or coordinated strategy.
Recent political assessments have pointed to internal disputes and nomination-related disagreements within opposition parties as a potential weakness ahead of the election.
If the opposition remains divided, Hamzat's advantage could become even more difficult to overcome.
What Could Work Against Hamzat?
Despite his strong political position, Hamzat is not entering a completely risk-free contest.
After almost three decades of APC control in Lagos, the party will have to defend its record before an electorate that is increasingly younger, more politically active and more demanding.
Issues such as traffic, transportation, housing, flooding, taxation, environmental management, cost of living and access to economic opportunities are likely to feature prominently in the campaign.
For Hamzat, therefore, the challenge will not simply be to inherit the APC structure. He will have to convince Lagos voters that continuity represents further development rather than political stagnation.
2023 Still Hangs Over 2027
The shadow of the 2023 election will remain important throughout the campaign.
Sanwo-Olu won that election convincingly in numerical terms, but Rhodes-Vivour's second-place finish showed that the APC's dominance could be challenged.
The 2027 election will test whether the 2023 result represented the beginning of a lasting shift in Lagos politics or whether it was largely the product of a unique combination of Peter Obi's presidential campaign, the Obidient movement and widespread anti-establishment sentiment at the time.
Rhodes-Vivour's campaign will therefore be judged against his previous performance.
Can he build beyond the 312,329 votes he secured in 2023?
Can he attract voters who did not support him previously?
Can the ADC bring together supporters from different political parties, ethnic groups, generations and social backgrounds?
And, most importantly, can the opposition protect and translate its votes into an actual electoral victory?
Hamzat Has the Head Start — But the Race Is Not Over
At this stage, Hamzat clearly has the stronger political machinery.
He has the backing of the Lagos APC establishment, the endorsement of influential party leaders and the advantage of operating within a political structure that has governed Lagos for decades.
Rhodes-Vivour, on the other hand, has something different: a proven ability to mobilise a significant opposition vote and a political identity that resonates strongly with sections of Lagos's younger and reform-minded electorate.
His task is to turn that support into a broader coalition capable of reaching beyond his traditional base.
The deciding factor may ultimately be the opposition's ability to unite.
If ADC, PDP, NDC and other opposition interests continue to operate separately, the APC's organisational advantage could prove decisive.
But if the opposition succeeds in creating a genuinely united political structure, builds strong grassroots machinery and addresses the concerns of voters beyond social media, Lagos 2027 could become much more competitive than the current political balance suggests.
For now, Hamzat has the head start. Rhodes-Vivour has the challenge. The opposition has the equation to solve.
And with the 2027 election approaching, Lagos may once again become the political laboratory where Nigeria's established political order faces one of its most serious tests.
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